Mapping and modelling of changes in agricultural intensity in Europe

Spatial maps of agricultural intensity are needed for analyses of environmental issues, including biodiversity changes. We present a method to produce such maps for Europe. While most studies beyond farm level focus on land cover change only, this paper focuses on spatial variation in land use intensity and its dynamics.Our method defines agricultural land use intensity in terms of nitrogen input. For arable land, it combines field observations with administrative-level statistics to assess probability of occurrence for three land use intensity classes. For grassland, it uses maps of livestock density to assess probability of occurrence for two intensity classes. Agricultural land is spatially allocated to intensity classes using an algorithm that downscales intensity changes simulated with an agricultural economic model.Our results are 1 km² resolution maps of classified agricultural land use intensity in the year 2000. We illustrate the method by exploring changes in the spatial pattern of land use intensity for a financial policy reform scenario in the year 2025. Results indicate spatial heterogeneity in land use intensity across European countries, including large differences in intensity between countries, between regions, but also within regions.Our method could be improved with smaller-resolution agricultural statistics and broader intensity indicators.     

Precipitation-driven decrease in wildfires in British Columbia

Trends of summer precipitation and summer temperature and their influence on trends in summer drought and area burned in British Columbia (BC) were investigated for the period 1920–2000. The complexity imposed by topography was taken into account by incorporating high spatial resolution climate and fire data. Considerable regional variation in trends and in climate–fire relationships was observed. A weak but significant increase in summer temperature was detected in northeastern and coastal BC, whereas summer precipitation increased significantly in all regions—by up to 45.9 %. A significant decrease in province-wide area burned and at the level of sub-units was strongly related to increasing precipitation, more so than to changing temperature or drought severity. A stronger dependence of area burned on precipitation, a variable difficult to predict, implies that projected changes in future area burned in this region may yield higher uncertainties than in regions where temperature is predominantly the limiting factor for fire activity. We argue that analyses of fire–climate relationships must be undertaken at a sufficiently high resolution such that spatial variability in limiting factors on area burned like precipitation, temperature, and drought is captured within units.     

Precipitation-driven carbon balance controls survivorship of desert biocrust mosses

Precipitation patterns including the magnitude, timing, and seasonality of rainfall are predicted to undergo substantial alterations in arid regions in the future, and desert organisms may be more responsive to such changes than to shifts in only mean annual rainfall. Soil biocrust communities (consisting of cyanobacteria, lichen, and mosses) are ubiquitous to desert ecosystems, play an array of ecological roles, and display a strong sensitivity to environmental changes. Crust mosses are particularly responsive to changes in precipitation and exhibit rapid declines in biomass and mortality following the addition of small rainfall events. Further, loss of the moss component in biocrusts leads to declines in crust structure and function. In this study, we sought to understand the physiological responses of the widespread and often dominant biocrust moss Syntrichia caninervis to alterations in rainfall. Moss samples were collected during all four seasons and exposed to two rainfall event sizes and three desiccation period (DP) lengths. A carbon balance approach based on single precipitation events was used to define the carbon gain or loss during a particular hydration period. Rainfall event size was the strongest predictor of carbon balance, and the largest carbon gains were associated with the largest precipitation events. In contrast, small precipitation events resulted in carbon deficits for S. caninervis. Increasing the length of the DP prior to an event resulted in reductions in carbon balance, probably because of the increased energetic cost of hydration following more intense bouts of desiccation. The season of collection (i.e., physiological status of the moss) modulated these responses, and the effects of DP and rainfall on carbon balance were different in magnitude (and often in sign) for different seasons. In particular, S. caninervis displayed higher carbon balances in the winter than in the summer, even for events of identical size. Overall, our results suggest that annual carbon balance and survivorship in biocrust mosses are largely driven by precipitation, and because of the role mosses play in biocrusts, changes in intra-annual precipitation patterns can have implications for hydrology, soil stability, and nutrient cycling in dryland systems.     

Climate change impacts on tree crop suitability in Southeast Asia

Regional Environmental Change - Understanding popular attitudes to climate change can be important in developing effective climate adaptation responses. However, in the Pacific region, which is at...     

科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的情景分析

根据科尔沁沙地及其周围地区过去15年(1985～2000年)土地利用的时空动态变化、2000年的土地利用格局以及2010年的土地利用规划数据,构建了模拟研究地区土地利用变化的CLUE-S模型。在该模型的支持下,论文分别对研究地区未来10年(2000～2010年)土地利用变化格局的马尔柯夫情景和规划情景进行了模拟,然后,通过2000年土地利用现状图与2010年情景模拟图的叠加,分析了在以上两种情景下土地利用变化的共同之处及差异。研究结果对完善科尔沁沙地及其周围地区土地利用变化的动态管理具有重要意义。     

Development based climate change adaptation and mitigation—conceptual issues and lessons learned in studies in developing countries

This paper discusses the conceptual basis for linking development policies and climate change adaptation and mitigation and suggests an analytical approach that can be applied to studies in developing countries. The approach is centred on a broad set of policy evaluation criteria that merge traditional economic and sectoral goals and broader social issues related to health and income distribution. The approach is inspired by institutional economics and development paradigms that emphasise human wellbeing, resource access, empowerment, and the arrived freedoms. It is outlined how indicators of wellbeing can be used to assess policies that integrate development and climate change policy objectives, and this approach is discussed in comparison with other work that rather have been inspired by sustainable development aspects of manmade, natural, and social capital. The experiences and results from case studies of development and climate that have done a first attempt to use human wellbeing indicators are reported and discussed. The studies include work from India, China, South Africa, Brazil, Bangladesh, and Senegal. A number of policy examples in the energy-, food-, and water sectors in these studies have shown up to demonstrate numerous linkages between development policies and climate change. Various analytical tools have been used in the studies including quantitative and qualitative scenario work as well as detailed micro-based analysis. The methodological conclusion that can be drawn from these studies, is that it is possible to apply wellbeing indicators to the more detailed policy assessment, but a link to more general national and regional scenario work is not yet established.     

Changes in the spatial patterns of human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in Europe 1990–2006

Understanding patterns, dynamics, and drivers of land use is crucial for improving our ability to cope with sustainability challenges. The human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) framework provides a set of integrated socio-ecological indicators that quantify how land use alters energy flows in ecosystems via land conversions and biomass harvest. Thus, HANPP enables researchers to systematically and consistently assess the outcome of changes in land cover and land-use intensity across spatio-temporal scales. Yet, fine-scale HANPP assessments are so far missing, an information important to address site-specific ecological implications of land use. Here, we provide such an assessment for Europe at a 1-km scale for the years 1990, 2000, and 2006. The assessment was based on a consistent land-use/biomass flow dataset derived from statistical data, remote sensing maps, and a dynamic global vegetation model. We find that HANPP in Europe amounted to ~43 % of potential productivity, well above the global average of ~25 %, with little variation in the European average since 1990. HANPP was highest in Central Europe and lower in Northern and Southern Europe. At the regional level, distinct changes in land-use intensity were observed, most importantly the decline of cropland areas and yields following the breakdown of socialism in Eastern Europe and the subsequent recovery after 2000, or strong dynamics related to storm events that resulted in massive salvage loggings. In sum, however, these local dynamics cancelled each other out at the aggregate level. We conclude that this finding warrants further research into aspects of the scale-dependency of dynamics and stability of land use.     

Multi-scale scenarios of spatial-temporal dynamics in the European livestock sector

The European livestock sector has changed rapidly in the recent past and further changes are expected in the near future due to reforms in the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), increasing environmental concerns and changing consumer awareness. We developed a multi-scale modeling approach for exploring spatial and temporal dynamics of livestock distribution by accounting for drivers at different spatial scales. Such approach can provide a basis for environmental impact assessments of livestock farming at broad spatial scales. Assessment of change in both quantity and location was made for six livestock types. Four contrasting scenarios were applied ranging from globalization to regionalization, as well as from low regulation levels and dominance of market forces towards a higher degree of governmental regulation. National level livestock numbers as calculated by a macro-economic model were spatially distributed at the landscape scale according to the scenario assumptions considering biophysical, socio-economic, and political forces. Results indicate for most of the old European Union (EU) member countries a decrease in livestock numbers. In the new EU member countries sheep, goats and pigs are expected to decline while beef cattle and poultry are expected to grow. Livestock densities are expected to increase both within and outside current livestock hotspot regions in absence of environmental legislations. Environmental pressure as result of high livestock densities may, however, also remain in regulated scenarios where environmental policies are implemented and income support remains stable over time due to path dependencies in the livestock sector. But contrary to the non-regulated scenario it is less likely that new areas with high risk of negative environmental impacts due to livestock farming will develop.